countdown status check

31 days to spring, 2 weeks to March.

Vandy countdown status: LOCK

In the last week or so, the Commodores have played two bad games and one brilliant one (sweep!)--but they went 2-1, which is good news (especially considering recent injuries/illnesses). Vandy is now 19-5, 8-2 in the SEC and are alone in second place in the SEC East (with a two game lead over UT and Florida). They are #10 in the RPI rankings.

I originally set the countdown at 10 wins, because 10 wins in the SEC would make Vandy a lock most years in the league. But Vandy's non-conference schedule helped boost their RPI and got them some quality wins (along with a few blemishes) on the resume. But at 19-5 with 8 SEC wins, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Vandy wouldn't end up with an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament. There is no more denying--Vandy is a lock for the post-season.

Preds countdown status: UP IN THE AIR

The Preds record at the Olympic Break: 33-23-5, 71 points, 7th place in the Western Conference. 19 points away from 90 and a possible playoff berth. 71.3% probability of making the post-season.

The countdown for the Preds is much less of a sure thing. Just when it looks like they might be ready to shed an apparent slump, the Preds find a way to lose a game to one of the league's worst teams. And just when it looks like they might be ready to bow out of the playoff race, they come up with an impressive win against a team like Pittsburgh.

The Preds sent themselves to the Olympic break by killing off a Pittsburgh Penguin overtime power play, diving and scrapping along the way, and then becoming the first team to beat the Pens in a shootout this year. It was an inspired performance from a Preds team that has struggled badly at special teams. But any momentum will have to wait--the Olympic hockey tournament gets underway today.

ps--just 4 months until the World Cup