In the 2007-08 season, Vandy went 26-8, 10-6 in an SEC that qualified 6 teams for the NCAA Tourney. That earned the Dores a 4 seed and an opening round game versus 13 seed Siena. Vandy was a no-show and was blown out by the Siena Saints. You may remember how many college basketball talking heads were picking Vandy to get upset in that game. They were right.
Now in the 2009-10 season, Vandy has earned a 24-8 record, 12-4 in an SEC that qualified 4 teams to the NCAA Tourney. Again Vandy was placed into March Madness as a 4 seed. And again the talking heads like a 13th seed, this time the Murray State Racers, to upset the Dores.
There do appear to be some similarities between the 07-08 season and this season. One may hear the talking heads and wonder: are the Murray State Racers the Siena Saints of the 09-10 NCAAs for Vandy?
If you've followed Vandy basketball for any time at all, you know that Vandy almost never enters any competition as a favorite--no matter their ranking or seed. Hell, (if I remember right) Vandy was picked by the media to finish third or fourth in the SEC East in 1993 when they ended up as overall SEC Champs.
In 2004, Bob Ryan said 6th seeded Vanderbilt University was, "too white," to compete with opening round opponent and 11 seed Western Michigan. Vandy ended up in the Sweet 16 that season. In 2007, 11th seeded George Washington was a hot 1st round upset pick versus the 6th seeded Dores. Again, Vanderbilt went on to the Sweet 16 that year, and even then were only stopped by a team that was allowed to, "travel," past them.
Before that? Vandy was a 10 seed and was matched up against 7 seed Xavier. Did the experts see an upset in that one? No, they thought Xavier would prevail (and they did).
No matter what Vandy does, who they have on their team or what their record is--when they advance to the post-season, they frequently seem to be viewed as a team that is, "likely," to lose. Sometimes the experts are right, sometimes they are (very) wrong. I don't think you can count on the, "experts," for anything when it comes to predictions on Vanderbilt.
So, what do the resumes say? How likely is it that Murray State will be the dagger to the Commodores that Siena was?
Looking at Siena in 2007-08 and Murray State in 2009-10, there are some similarities. Murray State actually has a higher RPI than Siena did in 2007-08. But that comes from Murray only losing 4 games, despite playing an almost all cupcake schedule. Obviously winning your games can be more important than playing a tough schedule when it comes to RPI ranking, as evidenced by the numbers of 2007-08 Siena and 2009-10 Murray State:
Siena 2007-200823-11, 13-5 in MAAC
RPI: 67
SOS: 143
strengths:
loss by 8 on road at Syracuse (NIT team in 07-08)
beat Stanford by 8 at home (was top 10 team in 07-08, advanced to Sweet 16)
bad losses:
lost 102-58 at eventual national championship runner-up Memphis
30-4, 17-1 in OVC
RPI: 62
SOS: 287
strengths:
5 point loss at California to open season. No other games all season long versus top 50 RPI teams. Only had 2 other games against teams that advanced to NCAA Tournament this year: 61-57 neutral site victory over ETSU (16 seed in this year's tournament) and 75-66 home win over Morgan State, who is a 15 seed in this year's NCAAs.
I say Murray State's 2009-10 tournament resume is much more similar to that of Vanderbilt's 1st round opponent in 2003-04, the Western Michigan Broncos (we just need Bob Ryan to open his yap again):
26-5, 15-3 in MAC
RPI: 53
SOS: 226
resume:
all loses came on road
neutral court win over RPI 31 UAB, 69-62
Both Western Michigan and Murray State dominated weak conferences and were strong at home. All loses for both teams came on the road. Vandy and Siena, however, were built to compete with the big boys, and win away from home against quality competition.
Unfortunately, Vanderbilt has been consistently inconsistent the last few weeks of the season. And that makes them ripe for an upset. They could probably beat just about anyone or lose to just about anyone right now.
So, Murray State could well upset Vanderbilt. But when you look at how untested Murray State is this year compared to Siena in 2007-08, Vandy is getting an easier out this time. And Vandy, themselves, are a more balanced, more talented team than the last Commodores edition that entered the NCAA Tournament.